The most important thing to note here is that despite China and India having similar GDP per capita initially, India opened up its economy in 1991, which was 13 years after China did in 1978. The result is that India’s GDP per capita PPP today is where China’s was 13 years ago, at least according to the IMF. This means that if current trends continue, 13 years from now India’s GDP per capita PPP will be where China’s is today. Given how different India’s development model has been, it’ll be really interesting to see how this would transpire in the next decade and a half.
Thank you; this is helpful. A few thoughts and questions.
1 Comparisons between China and India are hard to interpret because China does so much of the world's manufacturing, which I guess India is never likely to do. So I wonder what your charts would look like if they were done on the basis of some kind of relationships between energy and consumption rather than production?
2 Do you know what oil, gas and coal demand India expects to be coherent with the goal of a self reliant and prosperous economy by 2047?
3 I looked at the Coal India accounts the other day - and was surprised by how profitable the business is. I didn't do a deep enough dive to be completely sure - but it looked like the government gets £6-8bn from it each year. Should we worry about this. (a) as its so profitable, the cost of India's own coal could come down quite a lot to compete with non fossil fuel electricity and (b) the government has a strong interest to protect it.
Solid analysis. The framing around comparing countries at equivalent GDP per capita levels is way more useful than the standard India vs China comparisons. The 9% solar at $11k PPP vs negligible at that level for China is pretty staggering when you think abuot it. The three wheeler EV stat is wild too, didnt realize India was leading globally there. Curious whether the services-heavy growth model is more replicable for other emerging economies or if there are unique factors at play.
The most important thing to note here is that despite China and India having similar GDP per capita initially, India opened up its economy in 1991, which was 13 years after China did in 1978. The result is that India’s GDP per capita PPP today is where China’s was 13 years ago, at least according to the IMF. This means that if current trends continue, 13 years from now India’s GDP per capita PPP will be where China’s is today. Given how different India’s development model has been, it’ll be really interesting to see how this would transpire in the next decade and a half.
Thank you; this is helpful. A few thoughts and questions.
1 Comparisons between China and India are hard to interpret because China does so much of the world's manufacturing, which I guess India is never likely to do. So I wonder what your charts would look like if they were done on the basis of some kind of relationships between energy and consumption rather than production?
2 Do you know what oil, gas and coal demand India expects to be coherent with the goal of a self reliant and prosperous economy by 2047?
3 I looked at the Coal India accounts the other day - and was surprised by how profitable the business is. I didn't do a deep enough dive to be completely sure - but it looked like the government gets £6-8bn from it each year. Should we worry about this. (a) as its so profitable, the cost of India's own coal could come down quite a lot to compete with non fossil fuel electricity and (b) the government has a strong interest to protect it.
Solid analysis. The framing around comparing countries at equivalent GDP per capita levels is way more useful than the standard India vs China comparisons. The 9% solar at $11k PPP vs negligible at that level for China is pretty staggering when you think abuot it. The three wheeler EV stat is wild too, didnt realize India was leading globally there. Curious whether the services-heavy growth model is more replicable for other emerging economies or if there are unique factors at play.