China Energy Transition Review 2025

China’s surge in renewables and whole-economy electrification is rapidly reshaping energy choices for the rest of the world, creating the conditions for a decline in global fossil fuel use.

Hi, Sam here. I'd like to share Ember's latest publication: China's Energy Transition Review, for which I was a contributing author.

The report contains many interesting data points and perspectives that I'd encourage diving into. You can find the full report here.

Below I include a few key charts and findings.

1. Fossil fuel demand is plateauing in China. Rapid progress across the twin trends of renewables and electrification is driving a plateau in fossil fuel demand.

   

2. Fossil-fuelled generation is down in H1 2025 – a sign of what’s to come. Solar and wind meet all growth in electricity demand in the first half of 2025 to drive a decline in fossil generation.

   

3. China is electrifying its end-use rapidly. By contrast, electrification in OECD-Europe and the United States has been flat for a generation.

   

4. China has built out massive manufacturing capacity. China's massive supply-side capacity in solar and batteries outpaces even global net-zero scenarios into the near future, promising lower prices and faster adoption both inside and outside China.

5. Beyond manufacturing electro-technologies at scale, China has emerged as the principal innovator in the energy transition. Its share of patent applications has soared from about 5% in 2000 to about 75% in recent years.

6. Made-in-China electro-technologies are rushing into emerging markets. For example:

• China's solar exports tripled in five years, reaching 242 GW in 2024, with around half going to emerging markets

• Where solar goes, batteries follow. In 2024, China exported $61 billion worth of batteries, with a quarter going to emerging markets

• EV exports to emerging markets surged from $0.5 billion in 2020 to $16.5 billion in 2024, overtaking the EU

The result is that many emerging markets are leapfrogging the United States in renewables and electrification:

63% of emerging markets (by energy demand) have higher solar uptake than the US, and 25% of emerging markets have leapfrogged the US in end-use electrification.

7. China pivots global fossil fuel demand. Since 2018, declines in OECD countries have offset rises in non-OECD excluding China, making China the pivot nation in the global fossil fuel demand. As China moves from growth to decline in fossil fuel consumption, so too will the world.

   In the IEA's Stated Policies scenario, China's fossil fuel demand begins falling by 2030. Given China's track record of exceeding targets – hitting its 1,200 GW solar and wind goal six years early and its EV target of 20% of sales 3 years early – these projections will likely prove conservative. The accelerating momentum of emerging market leapfrogging only reinforces this outlook.

Find the full report here. We’ll also have more to come on China’s role in the wider electrotech revolution in our annual slide deck, published next Tuesday 16th September.